In the first half of 2011, the international gold price rose from above 1400 U.S. dollars to 1,500 U.S. dollars, an increase of only about 100 U.S. dollars. However, after July, the European debt crisis fell into haze again, and the Fed's hesitation on easing policies U.S. precious metal pricescaused a sharp increase in market demand for hedging. Gold prices then strengthened again, creating the longest continuous upward offensive since 1980.
Comparing Shanghai gold futures and gold AU (T+D) business, the similarities between the two mainly include: first, the two can be long or short, and the trading methods are more flexible. Secondly, they are all margin trading. Leveraged trading can be used for small gains, but it also increases risks. Third, the delivery target is the same. The standard delivery product is a gold ingot with a standard weight of 3 kg and a fineness of not less than 99.95%, and a gold ingot with a standard weight of 1 kg and a fineness of not less than 99.99% can be substituted for delivery.
Jeffrey Sherman, manager of DoubleLineCapital's commodity asset portfolio, said that if the European Central Bank fails to come up with a method to provide liquidity, it will trigger concerns about deflation. If deflation does occur, gold will not be an attractive asset.
Investors on this trading day will focus on the minutes of the September meeting of the Fed to be announced tonight. Canadian TD Securities (TDSecurities) pointed out that the two major central banks in Europe and the United Kingdom launched more new measures and strengthened the Fed's expectations for the third round of quantitative easing measures (QE3).
Since April, funds have continued to flow out of the gold market, and institutions have sold high-priced gold, causing gold to plummet. From April 4 to 11, funds continued to flow out of commodity funds, of which gold fund outflows increased by 84% from the previous month to 1.31 billion US dollars. In contrast, the inflow of funds in the US stock market hit a record high. From May 2 to 8, funds flowed into global stock markets, especially the US stock market, and the funds flowed into the global bond market reached a new high; May 9 to 15 , A large amount of funds flowed into the global stock market, especially the Japanese stock market, and the rate of inflow into the bond market slowed down. Funds continue to flow out of the gold physical fund, and CFTC gold non-commercial short positions have also increased for four consecutive weeks. Gold prices still face downside risks in the short term.
Yesterday, the 2012 Gold Market Investment Strategy Report was held in Foshan. The trend of gold prices this year continues to grow, and the spot price of gold has risen by 28.68% this year. Therefore, will the 10-year gold bull market continue next year? How much room is there for gold investment after the financial crisis? It has become the most concerned issue of Foshan gold investors. At the report meeting, experts made predictions based on the trend of gold. With the continuous introduction of global quantitative easing policies and the easing ofU.S. precious metal prices European and American economies, the price of gold will definitely be adjusted. Next year, the price of gold will continue to fluctuate or remain in the process of callback. Upside momentum.
The strong dollar has two driving forces: First, the currency depreciation of the dollar index component, especially the euro, which accounts for close to 60%. This situation occurred mainly because the European debt crisis continued to worsen, and the risk aversion it triggered would push gold and the US dollar to rise together; second, the fundamentals of the US economy improved. In this case, a stronger dollar will weigh on gold. He Wei, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, believes that the current market conditions belong to the former. Therefore, gold and the U.S. dollar are rising simultaneously, and they are expected to challenge historical highs later.